原标题: $RDDT was driving me insane. > massive earnings beat > just printing FCF since they’re too profitable > 69% Y/Y revenue growth.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 23:08
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): $RDDT was driving me insane. > massive earnings beat > just printing FCF since they’re too profitable > 69% Y/Y revenue growth. > biggest moat against AI vibe coding from network effect > 91.5% gross margin. Was just flat for months. Glad to see it getting more attention.Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) $RDDT is getting ridiculous. Looks completely mispriced. Now down 40% over the pa
中文摘要 Serenity称RDDT业绩大幅超预期,自由现金流充沛,收入同比增长69%,毛利率达91.5%,但股价数月表现平淡。
原标题: Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund: Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 21:04
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund: Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE. “The loss is one of the biggest this year" Many of these Swedish hedge funds are now heavily underwater. Just as an accidental byproduct of $SIVE being a core part of the CPO supercycle. Starting to make more sense why there’s a lot of false news being published. Especi
中文摘要 Serenity转述消息称,瑞典新对冲基金Origo因做空SIVE损失惨重,被称为今年较大亏损之一,多家瑞典基金承压。
原标题: This timeline keeps getting more and more unreal… $NVDA Jensen Huang to meet Faker (League of Legends) I did talk with Jensen few
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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 17:25
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): This timeline keeps getting more and more unreal… $NVDA Jensen Huang to meet Faker (League of Legends) I did talk with Jensen few years back about PUBG and GPU shortages for mining. And he was enthusiastic about ideas for cross-platform gaming + getting enough allocation to gamers. Fast forward to now, feels like Nvidia kinda ignored gamers… for AI, which is understandable. So
中文摘要 Serenity称英伟达CEO黄仁勋将与《英雄联盟》选手Faker会面,并回忆曾与黄仁勋谈及PUBG和挖矿导致的GPU短缺。
原标题: LOL. I’m honestly laughing there’s new media articles for each one of my X posts.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 16:34
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): LOL. I’m honestly laughing there’s new media articles for each one of my X posts. I appreciate any objective coverage though since it helps combat a lot of the disinformation online. Am I that popular now?Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) $SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuanc
中文摘要 Serenity表示,近期媒体为其每条X帖子撰写报道令其意外,并称客观报道有助于对抗网络上的不实信息。
原标题: $SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 15:15
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): $SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does f
中文摘要 Serenity认为SIVE明年可能成为CPO领域的关键卡点和瓶颈,并称非技术人士发布的信息常忽略CW激光器等细节。
原标题: I now am the #1 most subscribed to account on the entire X platform!
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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 12:24
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): I now am the #1 most subscribed to account on the entire X platform! After overtaking Elon Musk today. Thank you everyone for helping me achieve my goal.Jbam (@Jbamn)congrats on becoming #1 most subscribed X account!— https://x.com/Jbamn/status/2062335737454907626 — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 4, 2026
中文摘要 Serenity称自己当天超过Elon Musk,成为整个X平台订阅数最高账号,并感谢用户帮助其实现这一目标。
原标题: Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 11:39
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. “Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.” And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like
中文摘要 Serenity称上游半导体供应链公司仍有上行空间,并提到高盛预计GOOGL、META、MSFT和AMZN资本开支合计达5.3万亿美元。
原标题: Well, looks like it’s that time of the year again for $COIN, $HOOD, $CRCL and co.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 10:00
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Well, looks like it’s that time of the year again for $COIN, $HOOD, $CRCL and co. So much for a “friendly administration” and “strategic reserve” if they’re trying to ram through Bank Lobbied Clarity Act bills… To ban any form of innovation or competition against banks, with things like yields. And nuking liquidity as they go (but strengthens the USD) Valuations do seem compell
中文摘要 Serenity提到COIN、HOOD、CRCL等公司,批评所谓友好政府背景下仍推动受银行游说影响的Clarity Act法案。
原标题: Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that t
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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 07:56
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - “So as the TPUs continue to accelerate, there’ll be pressure overall on margins. But the connectivity sid
中文摘要 Serenity称AVGO重申2027年1000亿美元以上收入目标,市场或原本期待上调,因此股价下跌,并提及NVDA黄仁勋对MRVL的评论。
原标题: EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 22:14
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the development of photonic integrated circuits and associated technologies" - "building and strengthening advan
中文摘要 Serenity称欧盟CHIPS Act 2.0提案已发布,光子学确认成为欧盟政策新增结构性组成,对欧洲光子产业构成主题利好。
原标题: The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for wa
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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 19:50
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value -> $NVDA, $NOK direct eval of their pre-commercial SiPH foundry, volume ramping 2027/2028 -> $XFAB leading hig
中文摘要 Serenity称POET市值24亿美元,封装Sivers激光器并获5000万美元预生产合约;XFAB市值17亿美元,具SiC、GaN、MEMS和硅光子代工背景。
原标题: Wow, only 1K more subscribers until I overtake Elon Musk!
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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 19:00
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Wow, only 1K more subscribers until I overtake Elon Musk! Right now I’m at 46K. Elon is at 47K. Then I’ll hold the crown of the #1 most subscribed to person on the entire X platform? What a fun timeline. — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 3, 2026
中文摘要 Serenity称其X订阅数约4.6万,Elon Musk约4.7万,只差1000人即可成为平台订阅数最高账号。
原标题: Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 18:17
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets.Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)Nebius [ $NBIS ] at $86.69 is the purest Neocloud and AI-infra asymmetry left. This i
中文摘要 Serenity表示其去年提出Neocloud板块将成主线,并将NBIS列为高信念标的,称Nebius表现领先IREN、CRWV等同类公司。
原标题: GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 15:50
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosyste
中文摘要 Serenity称Ayar加入Nvidia NVLink Fusion后,SIVE可能成为英伟达NVLink CPO供应链生态伙伴的激光来源。
原标题: Wow… new extremely transformative news got released today.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 14:51
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Wow… new extremely transformative news got released today. Making a certain photonics company: The effective upstream laser chokepoint for $NVDA NVLink fusion CPO ecosystem. With their lasers now in Nvidia’s optical infrastructure supply chains. Can anyone guess the name? — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 3, 2026
中文摘要 Serenity称当天发布的重大消息,使某光子公司成为NVDA NVLink Fusion CPO生态的有效上游激光瓶颈。
原标题: Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 13:37
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing with €30–500 million financing facilities per company and revenue demand incentivizes. To bridge early Europ
中文摘要 Serenity称欧洲6月3日发布技术主权方案,其中CHIPS Act 2.0预计优先支持光子学,XFAB和SIVE被行业政策蓝图提及。
原标题: Is majority of the next generation stuck in the permanent underclass?
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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 10:41
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Is majority of the next generation stuck in the permanent underclass? > Missed out on gaining control of AI through ownership of infra/compute today > Majority of jobs getting replaced by AI > Housing more expensive > Inflation makes cost of living go brrr. Gg? — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 3, 2026
中文摘要 Serenity讨论下一代面临的压力,包括错过AI基础设施和算力所有权、岗位被AI取代、住房更贵以及通胀推高生活成本。
原标题: There we go. My CPO longs in Taiwan are finally starting to take off today.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 09:18
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): There we go. My CPO longs in Taiwan are finally starting to take off today. Shunsin +10% Foci +10% Xintec +10% Just waiting on Win Semi, Msscorp, and Nextronics to catch up. — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 3, 2026
中文摘要 Serenity称其台湾CPO多头仓位当天启动,Shunsin、Foci和Xintec均上涨10%,并等待Win Semi、Msscorp和Nextronics跟进。
原标题: Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 07:51
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC. Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new. Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others.Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) $AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated cust
中文摘要 Serenity表示AEHR表现良好,市值约35亿美元,近期较少提及是因暂无太多新进展,仍等待LPK等企业的批量订单。
原标题: Okay yeah should have trusted Jensen more on $MRVL after what he did with $NBIS.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 04:54
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Okay yeah should have trusted Jensen more on $MRVL after what he did with $NBIS. He actually gave a $1T price target this time with Marvell. Marvell up 35% with one remark…Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) $NVDA Jensen Huang: “ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “. Marvell is currently trading at $191B. I have positions in Marvell… but how much faith do we have in Jensen
中文摘要 Serenity称应更相信黄仁勋对MRVL的判断,并表示黄仁勋给出1万亿美元目标后,Marvell因一句评论上涨35%。
原标题: $LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/02 22:19
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): $LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way. — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 2, 2026
中文摘要 Serenity称LITE曾凭EML和可插拔光模块两年从30亿美元涨至750亿美元,并认为SIVE或凭CPO、可插拔和CW复制类似路径。
原标题: Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/02 21:17
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain. Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the pow
中文摘要 Serenity认为XFAB像早期TSEM,称其硅光子代工业务获NVDA和NOK验证,并可受CHIPS Act和政府补助支持。
原标题: DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/02 15:55
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes
中文摘要 Serenity称Reuters报道Sivers与GFS建立战略合作,SIVE激光器将被整合进GlobalFoundries硅光子平台参考设计。
原标题: The most consequential event of an entire company’s history.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/02 15:00
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name? — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 2, 2026
中文摘要 Serenity称一家光子企业当天发布重大事件,使其成为CPO、可插拔和SiPH的功能性标准激光器,服务NVDA、AVGO、AMD和MRVL等公司。
原标题: $NVDA Jensen Huang: “ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “.
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Serenity 观察 · 06/02 12:50
Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): $NVDA Jensen Huang: “ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “. Marvell is currently trading at $191B. I have positions in Marvell… but how much faith do we have in Jensen for the 5x? — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 2, 2026
中文摘要 Serenity转述称NVDA黄仁勋称MRVL是下一个1万亿美元公司;Marvell当前市值约1910亿美元,Serenity披露持有相关仓位。