2026-06-07

Bouygues Telecom财团同意以203.5亿欧元收购Patrick Drahi旗下SFR

原标题: Bouygues Telecom consortium agrees to buy Patrick Drahi’s SFR for €20.35bn

Financial Times · 06/07 06:16

Bid from group including Orange and Free-Iliad faces showdown with antitrust regulators in Paris and Brussels

中文摘要 包括Orange和Free-Iliad在内的财团提出收购SFR，交易将面临巴黎和布鲁塞尔反垄断监管机构的审查。

阿布扎比Etihad称无需降价即可超过伊朗战争前运力

原标题: Abu Dhabi’s Etihad to surpass pre-Iran War capacity without price cuts

Financial Times · 06/07 05:56

Airline had its planes grounded when fighting began but demand for transit through region has recovered

中文摘要 Etihad曾因战事开始而停飞部分飞机，但经由该地区中转的需求已恢复，运力有望超过战前水平。

美国人获得AI股权计划目前已知内容

原标题: What we know about the plan to give Americans an equity stake in AI

Financial Times · 06/07 05:18

OpenAI has proposed a sovereign-wealth-style fund to ease public anxiety about the impact of artificial intelligence

中文摘要 OpenAI提出设立类似主权财富基金的方案，让美国公众分享AI收益，以缓解对人工智能影响的担忧。

爱尔兰政府因向俄罗斯出口氧化铝承压

原标题: Irish government under pressure over alumina exports to Russia

Financial Times · 06/07 02:30

Lawmakers call for EU sanctions on Oleg Deripaska-linked plant in Ireland if raw material is used in Russian weapons

中文摘要 议员呼吁欧盟制裁爱尔兰一家与Oleg Deripaska有关的工厂，若其原料被用于俄罗斯武器制造。

西汉姆联联合主席在“严重历史指控”公布前辞职

原标题: West Ham co-chair quits ahead of ‘publication of serious historic allegations’

Financial Times · 06/07 00:27

David Sullivan departs just two weeks after club was relegated from Premier League

中文摘要 David Sullivan在西汉姆联从英超降级仅两周后离任，外界正等待有关严重历史指控的公布。

宏观预言者与股票分析师眼中的市场大相径庭

原标题: Macro Soothsayers, Stock Analysts See Vastly Different Markets - Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg via Google News · 06/06 21:00

Macro Soothsayers, Stock Analysts See Vastly Different Markets Bloomberg.com

中文摘要 Bloomberg称，宏观预测人士和股票分析师对市场前景的判断差异显著，反映出投资者对经济和股市路径看法分化。

伊朗战争带来创纪录利润后，油轮船东担心市场崩盘

原标题: Oil tanker owners fear market crash after Iran war drove record profits

Financial Times · 06/06 20:28

Shipowners ploughed windfall into new vessels and are braced for steep drop in rates if Strait of Hormuz reopens

中文摘要 油轮船东将战争带来的暴利投入新船建造；若霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，运价可能大幅下跌。

大型石油公司对委内瑞拉态度转变

原标题: Big Oil Is Changing Its Mind About Venezuela: New Economy - Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg via Google News · 06/06 18:45

Big Oil Is Changing Its Mind About Venezuela: New Economy Bloomberg.com

中文摘要 Bloomberg称，大型石油公司正在重新评估委内瑞拉相关机会，这一变化与新经济背景下的能源市场判断有关。

十亿品脱：啤酒巨头备战史上最“豪饮”世界杯

原标题: One billion pints: beer giants prepare for booziest World Cup in history

Financial Times · 06/06 18:00

An expanded tournament held in beer-friendly countries will result in an extra 1bn pints being consumed, say analysts

中文摘要 分析师称，扩军后的世界杯将在更欢迎啤酒的国家举办，预计将带来额外10亿品脱啤酒消费。

市场解读Prabowo政策，印尼面临信心危机

原标题: Indonesia Faces Crisis of Confidence as Markets Decode Prabowo - Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg via Google News · 06/06 17:54

Indonesia Faces Crisis of Confidence as Markets Decode Prabowo Bloomberg.com

中文摘要 Bloomberg称，随着市场试图解读Prabowo的政策方向，印尼正面临信心危机，投资者情绪承压。

全球经济图表：就业与通胀推升加息押注

原标题: Charting the Global Economy: Jobs, Inflation Feed Rate-Hike Bets - Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg via Google News · 06/06 17:00

Charting the Global Economy: Jobs, Inflation Feed Rate-Hike Bets Bloomberg.com

中文摘要 Bloomberg称，就业和通胀数据正在影响市场对加息的押注，成为观察全球经济走势的重要变量。

摩纳哥如何为F1发生改变

原标题: How Monaco changed for F1

Financial Times · 06/06 16:00

Also in today’s newsletter: The $10bn club, pickleball’s rise and more

中文摘要 Financial Times通讯讨论摩纳哥为F1作出的变化，并提及100亿美元俱乐部、匹克球兴起等体育商业话题。

美国科技业5月裁员升至2024年8月以来最高

原标题: US tech layoffs are surging: US-based technology employers announced 38,242 job cuts in May, the highest monthly total since August 2024, according to Challenger Gray data. Year-to-date, tech sector job cuts rose +66% YoY, to 123,653, the highest among all sectors, and 3x larger than transportation, the next closest sector. AI was the most cited reason for job cuts for the 3rd consecutive month, with 38,579 cuts attributed to AI in May alone, the highest since Challenger began tracking in 2023. This accounts for 40% of all layoffs announced last month, up from just 7% in January. Year-to-date, AI has been cited in 87,714 job cuts in 2026, or 22% of the total, already surpassing the 54,836 re

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The Kobeissi Letter · 06/07 05:54

观点/NFA: US tech layoffs are surging: US-based technology employers announced 38,242 job cuts in May, the highest monthly total since August 2024, according to Challenger Gray data. Year-to-date, tech sector job cuts rose +66% YoY, to 123,653, the highest among all sectors, and 3x larger than transportation,

中文摘要 Challenger Gray数据显示，美国科技雇主5月宣布裁员38,242人；年初至今科技业裁员同比增66%，AI连续第三个月成为最常被提及原因。

美国短债融资对私人投资者依赖加深

原标题: The US government is becoming increasingly dependent on private investors to finance its growing debt burden: Privately held US Treasury debt maturing within 1 year is up to a record $8.3 trillion. This figure has DOUBLED over the last 5 years, reflecting the government's growing reliance on short-term financing from private investors. As more debt shifts into Treasury bills, a larger amount must be refinanced every year, leaving borrowing costs increasingly sensitive to interest rates and investor demand. At the same time, foreign central banks are reducing their share of Treasury holdings, making private investors absorb a larger portion of new issuances. As a result, the Treasury market i

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The Kobeissi Letter · 06/07 04:12

观点/NFA: The US government is becoming increasingly dependent on private investors to finance its growing debt burden: Privately held US Treasury debt maturing within 1 year is up to a record $8.3 trillion. This figure has DOUBLED over the last 5 years, reflecting the government's growing reliance on short-t

中文摘要 私人持有的一年内到期美国国债升至创纪录8.3万亿美元，五年翻倍；外资央行持仓占比下降，使融资成本更受利率和需求影响。

全球央行4月增持17吨黄金，中国连续18个月买入

原标题: BREAKING: Global central banks acquired +17 tonnes of gold in April, the 2nd monthly purchase this year. This marks a sharp reversal from March, when central banks sold -30 tonnes of gold driven by Turkey and Russia. Poland led purchases at +14 tonnes, bringing its year-to-date total to +45 tonnes, with gold reserves now at 595 tonnes. China added +8 tonnes, the biggest monthly addition since December 2024, bringing official gold reserves to a record 2,322 tonnes, or ~9% of total reserves. China has now purchased gold for 18 consecutive months. Central bank demand for gold remains incredibly strong.

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The Kobeissi Letter · 06/07 01:57

观点/NFA: BREAKING: Global central banks acquired +17 tonnes of gold in April, the 2nd monthly purchase this year. This marks a sharp reversal from March, when central banks sold -30 tonnes of gold driven by Turkey and Russia. Poland led purchases at +14 tonnes, bringing its year-to-date total to +45 tonnes,

中文摘要 全球央行4月净买入17吨黄金，扭转3月抛售。波兰增持14吨居首，中国增持8吨，官方黄金储备达2,322吨。

伊朗5月原油出口降至2020年初以来最低

原标题: Iranian oil exports are collapsing: Iran exported just ~209,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate in May, the lowest since early 2020. This marks a -84% decline from April levels, which stood at 1.34 million barrels per day, and -89% from March levels, which were at ~1.90 million barrels per day. As a result, China's imports of Iranian crude fell to 1.10 million barrels per day in May, the lowest since January 2025, according to Kpler. This comes as the US naval blockade, which took effect on April 13th, has severely restricted Iranian exports by preventing most vessels from entering or departing Iranian ports. Meanwhile, Iranian floating storage has declined -43 million barrels si

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The Kobeissi Letter · 06/07 00:15

观点/NFA: Iranian oil exports are collapsing: Iran exported just ~209,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate in May, the lowest since early 2020. This marks a -84% decline from April levels, which stood at 1.34 million barrels per day, and -89% from March levels, which were at ~1.90 million barrels p

中文摘要 Kpler称，伊朗5月原油和凝析油出口约20.9万桶/日，较4月降84%；中国进口伊朗原油也降至2025年1月以来低位。

美国小企业招聘意愿跌至2020年5月以来最低

原标题: US small business hiring intentions are plummeting: Just 9% of small business owners say they plan to hire over the next 3 months, the lowest since May 2020. This percentage has HALVED over the last 6 months. This is now in-line with the levels seen during the 2001 recession and at the beginning of the 2008 Financial Crisis. At the same time, just 29% of small firms said they have job openings they can not fill, also the lowest since May 2020. ~13% of firms cited labor costs as their single most important problem, the highest in data going back to the 1970s. Small businesses are pulling back on hiring at an alarming rate.

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The Kobeissi Letter · 06/06 23:30

观点/NFA: US small business hiring intentions are plummeting: Just 9% of small business owners say they plan to hire over the next 3 months, the lowest since May 2020. This percentage has HALVED over the last 6 months. This is now in-line with the levels seen during the 2001 recession and at the beginning of

中文摘要 仅9%的美国小企业主计划未来三个月招聘，六个月内减半；29%称有难以填补岗位，劳动力成本压力升至长期高位。

宏观更新：两年期实际利率升至特朗普政府以来高位

原标题: Macro Update

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Tavi Costa · 06/06 22:02

观点/NFA: The 2-year real interest rate has now climbed to its highest level since the Trump administration took office.

中文摘要 Tavi Costa指出，两年期实际利率已升至特朗普政府上台以来最高水平，提示当前融资环境和宏观资产定价压力。

特朗普称政府或入股美国AI公司

原标题: BREAKING: President Trump says the Trump Administration might buy equity stakes in US AI companies and that he will host a meeting with AI executives as soon as next week, per Reuters.

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The Kobeissi Letter · 06/06 21:51

观点/NFA: BREAKING: President Trump says the Trump Administration might buy equity stakes in US AI companies and that he will host a meeting with AI executives as soon as next week, per Reuters. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) Jun 6, 2026

中文摘要 据Reuters，特朗普表示其政府可能购买美国AI公司的股权，并可能最快下周与AI企业高管举行会议。

Serenity称1亿次展示收入4,649美元将捐给救助项目

原标题: If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions!

@aleabitoreddit | actual tweet feed | opinion/NFA | no login/cookies

Serenity 观察 · 06/06 20:22

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions! All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later! It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count! I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI with stocks in the market, not off followers. Especially if I’m a good enough investor. So never felt the

中文摘要 Serenity透露，107,894,491次展示带来4,649美元收入，称款项将用于犬只救助，并提到每救助一只约需600美元。

Serenity研究绿的谐波后称登上中国新闻

原标题: Apparently I’m all over Chinese news now?

@aleabitoreddit | actual tweet feed | opinion/NFA | no login/cookies

Serenity 观察 · 06/06 18:46

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Apparently I’m all over Chinese news now? I just published some research on LeaderDrive (688017) and their role in humanoid supply chains. Looks like China’s robotics stock sector went up and 688017 hit 20% limit up? I appreciate they called me “Overseas God”.Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)专门写给我的中文读者： 绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。 他们的业务涵盖： 谐波减速器（据称占有超过60

中文摘要 Serenity称其关于绿的谐波688017在人形机器人供应链中角色的研究受到中国媒体关注，并提到机器人板块上涨。

Weekly ChartStorm回顾2022年市场底部信号

原标题: Weekly ChartStorm - The 2022 Bottom

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The Weekly ChartStorm · 06/06 17:50

观点/NFA: Special Edition: surveying the signs and signals from the 2022 market trough...

中文摘要 The Weekly ChartStorm发布特别版，梳理2022年市场低点附近出现的迹象和信号，用图表视角回看当时的市场转折。

Serenity再谈$XFAB：称其或成下一个$TSEM

原标题: Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB.

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Serenity 观察 · 06/06 16:37

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB. I still feel like it could be the next $TSEM, just early stage at a $1.4B MC? They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $TSEM are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($ASX docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO) By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing

中文摘要 Serenity称$XFAB市值约14亿美元，可能处于早期阶段，并讨论其在2027年下半年CPO相关竞争中的潜力。

Serenity谈$RDDT短期回调与高贝塔持仓

原标题: How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days?

@aleabitoreddit | actual tweet feed | opinion/NFA | no login/cookies

Serenity 观察 · 06/06 12:40

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days? Is it that hard just to hold indiviudal stocks like $AAOI or $MRVL that are already high-beta? You can be right directionally, but wrong on short-term timing. One extra week or month makes a huge difference. — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 6, 2026

中文摘要 Serenity评论$RDDT两日下跌后的投资者反应，称方向判断正确仍可能错在短期时点，并提到$AAOI、$MRVL等高贝塔个股。

尼克斯对马刺总决赛G3票价创NBA历史纪录

原标题: It's official. Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs is now the most expensive NBA game in history. The cheapest ticket available? $10,622 per seat. This game will shatter every previous record by a mile.

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The Kobeissi Letter · 06/06 12:35

观点/NFA: It's official. Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs is now the most expensive NBA game in history. The cheapest ticket available? $10,622 per seat. This game will shatter every previous record by a mile. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) Jun 6, 2026

中文摘要 Kobeissi称，纽约尼克斯与圣安东尼奥马刺NBA总决赛第三场成为史上最贵NBA比赛，最低票价达10,622美元。

Serenity称其X帖子衍生出“微型经济圈”

原标题: 真是让我受宠若惊，围绕着我的 X（推特）帖子居然建立起了一个完整的微型经济圈？ -> 追踪我做多股票的网站 -> Github 项目 -> 新闻媒体 -> 用 AI 直接搬运我内容的 X 大 V (网红) -> 迷因币/土狗币（我不支持，但你们开心就好） ->

@aleabitoreddit | actual tweet feed | opinion/NFA | no login/cookies

Serenity 观察 · 06/06 09:55

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): 真是让我受宠若惊，围绕着我的 X（推特）帖子居然建立起了一个完整的微型经济圈？ -> 追踪我做多股票的网站 -> Github 项目 -> 新闻媒体 -> 用 AI 直接搬运我内容的 X 大 V (网红) -> 迷因币/土狗币（我不支持，但你们开心就好） -> 帖子倒卖者 我的所有内容都是免费发布的。之后衍生出的任何东西都是公开信息！ 所以，如果有人打算收费，希望他们至少能在原有基础上提供一些额外的价值！Yidan (@YidanLesner)You know there are people making good money by selling your posts on X on Chinese social medias like Red Book. 🤣— https://x.com/YidanLesner/status/20628716

中文摘要 Serenity称围绕其免费发布的X内容，已出现追踪网站、GitHub项目、媒体报道、AI搬运账号和迷因币等衍生形态。

美国原油及石油产品库存降至2004年以来最低

原标题: US petroleum stockpiles are draining at a rapid pace: Total US crude and petroleum product inventories fell -10.6 million barrels last week, to 1.57 billion barrels, the lowest since 2004, according to the EIA. This was driven by commercial and government crude stocks, which fell -15.9 million barrels, the 2nd-largest weekly drop on record. The drawdown comes as exports to Asia and Europe are surging, with global markets scrambling to replace lost Middle Eastern supplies. Before the Iran War, US crude and petroleum product exports were ~3.0 million barrels per day. They are now up to 13.6 million barrels per day, the 2nd-highest reading on record. Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve f

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The Kobeissi Letter · 06/06 08:53

观点/NFA: US petroleum stockpiles are draining at a rapid pace: Total US crude and petroleum product inventories fell -10.6 million barrels last week, to 1.57 billion barrels, the lowest since 2004, according to the EIA. This was driven by commercial and government crude stocks, which fell -15.9 million barre

中文摘要 EIA数据显示，美国上周原油和石油产品总库存减少1,060万桶至15.7亿桶；出口大增被称为主要背景之一。

Serenity称摩根大通大举持有Sivers股份

原标题: Sigh. I keep telling retail + Swedish Hedge Funds how important $SIVE is to CPO, but people don’t listen.

@aleabitoreddit | actual tweet feed | opinion/NFA | no login/cookies

Serenity 观察 · 06/06 07:59

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Sigh. I keep telling retail + Swedish Hedge Funds how important $SIVE is to CPO, but people don’t listen. Enough retail holders got shaken off, and now JP Morgan managed to buy up a massive stake in Sivers (purely institutional). JP Morgan went from .4% ownership last month to 5%+ ownership this month…Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)The US/West now controls majority of the shares of

中文摘要 Serenity表示其持续强调$SIVE对CPO的重要性，并称JP Morgan已买入Sivers的大量机构持仓。

Serenity评市场回调：$NVDA、$MU等领跌

原标题: Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%.

@aleabitoreddit | actual tweet feed | opinion/NFA | no login/cookies

Serenity 观察 · 06/05 23:58

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing

中文摘要 Serenity称市场回调中，$NVDA跌4.87%、$MU跌7.03%，高贝塔个股$PL跌22.02%，并批评媒体对行情解释过度。

Serenity称精材3374是台积电封测链潜在标的

原标题: Xintec (3374) also looks like an interesting idea (TSMC packaging/test subsidary).

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Serenity 观察 · 06/05 23:15

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Xintec (3374) also looks like an interesting idea (TSMC packaging/test subsidary). MC is at ~ $2.18B. $TSM COUPE mass production starts this half, H2 2026. and... they have plans for "Aggressively pursuing CPO opportunities with subsidiaries Xintec". This is just very high-level, not too much public figures on volumes flowing to Xintec in COUPE. But this is just a asymmetrical

中文摘要 Serenity称Xintec精材3374作为台积电封装测试子公司值得关注，市值约21.8亿美元，并提到H2 2026量产计划。

Serenity称$SIVE是AAOI之后最偏好的CPO光子股

原标题: $SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI.

@aleabitoreddit | actual tweet feed | opinion/NFA | no login/cookies

Serenity 观察 · 06/05 22:25

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): $SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of peo

中文摘要 Serenity表示$SIVE是其在AAOI之后最喜欢的CPO和光子股票，并谈及瑞典基金Protean Funds对该股的看法。

Serenity接受中文昵称“白毛股神”

原标题: Apparently my Chinese name is “白毛股神” Which translates to “White Hair Stock God” in English.

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Serenity 观察 · 06/05 19:37

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Apparently my Chinese name is “白毛股神” Which translates to “White Hair Stock God” in English. I’ll gladly accept it. — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 5, 2026

中文摘要 Serenity称其中文名似乎是“白毛股神”，英文可译为“White Hair Stock God”，并表示愿意接受这一称呼。

Serenity称$RPI自其观点帖以来上涨247%

原标题: $RPI: $283 -> $983, up 247% from my thesis post.

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Serenity 观察 · 06/05 17:10

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): $RPI: $283 -> $983, up 247% from my thesis post. Quote: Strong AI-related demand was expected to result in core profit "significantly ahead" of market expectations. Turns out European Media’s favorite “memestock” with “no fundamentals” back in Feb. Was actually was backed by revenue growth from AI? — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 5, 2026

中文摘要 Serenity称$RPI从283美元涨至983美元，较其研究帖上涨247%，并引用AI相关需求推动核心利润超预期的说法。

Serenity面向中文读者详解绿的谐波机器人布局

原标题: 专门写给我的中文读者： 绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。 他们的业务涵盖： 谐波减速器（据称占有超过60%的国内市场份额，以及1800多家全球客户） 人形机器人旋转关节减速器

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Serenity 观察 · 06/05 10:31

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): 专门写给我的中文读者： 绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。 他们的业务涵盖： 谐波减速器（据称占有超过60%的国内市场份额，以及1800多家全球客户） 人形机器人旋转关节减速器 直线执行器 电机/关节，以及许多其他核心零部件。 并且他们正在进军行星滚柱丝杠（planetary roller screws）领域。 目前占据着绝对的主导地位：超过60%的国内市场份额以及1800多家全球客户。 主要客户包括优傲机器人（Universal Robots）、优必选（UBTech）、智元机器人（Agibot），而特斯拉（Tesla）、Figure 以及绝大多数其他人形机器人研发商都很可能是他们的潜在客户。 如果你看一下这些零部件的 BOM（物料清单），粗略估计它们占到了每台研发出的

中文摘要 Serenity称绿的谐波688017是其人形机器人赛道偏好的中国上市标的，业务涵盖谐波减速器、关节、执行器和电机等。

Serenity称自28美元起持续加仓$AAOI

原标题: $AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28.

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Serenity 观察 · 06/05 08:46

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): $AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration. I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2

中文摘要 Serenity称$AAOI是其从28美元以来持续加仓的标的，并提到800G、1.6T光模块需求可能带来的上行空间。

Serenity评Anthropic呼吁暂停AI开发

原标题: Anthropic: “Urges Global Pause in AI Development” Translation: “please let us take the lead, stop building!” Regardless, statement

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Serenity 观察 · 06/05 08:03

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Anthropic: “Urges Global Pause in AI Development” Translation: “please let us take the lead, stop building!” Regardless, statements like this encourage every Country to start investing in AI. Implications are profound from fields of medicine, math, and basically everything. — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 5, 2026

中文摘要 Serenity评论Anthropic“呼吁全球暂停AI开发”的说法，认为这类表态反而会促使各国加大AI投资。

Tavi Costa用系列图表讨论黄金筑底过程

原标题: A Sequence of Charts on Gold

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Tavi Costa · 06/05 07:09

观点/NFA: A Bottoming Process

中文摘要 Tavi Costa发布关于黄金的图表序列，主题为“筑底过程”，从宏观和市场图形角度讨论黄金走势。

Serenity称$RDDT业绩强劲但股价长期横盘

原标题: $RDDT was driving me insane. > massive earnings beat > just printing FCF since they’re too profitable > 69% Y/Y revenue growth.

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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 23:08

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): $RDDT was driving me insane. > massive earnings beat > just printing FCF since they’re too profitable > 69% Y/Y revenue growth. > biggest moat against AI vibe coding from network effect > 91.5% gross margin. Was just flat for months. Glad to see it getting more attention.Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) $RDDT is getting ridiculous. Looks completely mispriced. Now down 40% over the pa

中文摘要 Serenity称$RDDT业绩大幅超预期、自由现金流强、收入同比增长69%、毛利率91.5%，但此前股价数月表现平淡。

Serenity称瑞典基金做空$SIVE遭遇较大亏损

原标题: Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund: Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE.

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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 21:04

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund: Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE. “The loss is one of the biggest this year" Many of these Swedish hedge funds are now heavily underwater. Just as an accidental byproduct of $SIVE being a core part of the CPO supercycle. Starting to make more sense why there’s a lot of false news being published. Especi

中文摘要 Serenity提到瑞典对冲基金Origo因做空$SIVE损失大量资金，并称许多瑞典基金相关空头头寸已深度亏损。

黄仁勋将会见Faker，Serenity称时间线越发离奇

原标题: This timeline keeps getting more and more unreal… $NVDA Jensen Huang to meet Faker (League of Legends) I did talk with Jensen few

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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 17:25

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): This timeline keeps getting more and more unreal… $NVDA Jensen Huang to meet Faker (League of Legends) I did talk with Jensen few years back about PUBG and GPU shortages for mining. And he was enthusiastic about ideas for cross-platform gaming + getting enough allocation to gamers. Fast forward to now, feels like Nvidia kinda ignored gamers… for AI, which is understandable. So

中文摘要 Serenity称$NVDA黄仁勋将会见《英雄联盟》选手Faker，并回忆曾与黄仁勋讨论PUBG和挖矿导致的GPU短缺。

Serenity称媒体开始逐条报道其X帖子

原标题: LOL. I’m honestly laughing there’s new media articles for each one of my X posts.

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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 16:34

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): LOL. I’m honestly laughing there’s new media articles for each one of my X posts. I appreciate any objective coverage though since it helps combat a lot of the disinformation online. Am I that popular now?Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) $SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuanc

中文摘要 Serenity表示看到媒体为其每条X帖子撰写报道感到好笑，同时称客观报道有助于对抗线上错误信息。

Serenity称$SIVE或成明年CPO关键瓶颈

原标题: $SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year.

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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 15:15

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): $SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does f

中文摘要 Serenity认为$SIVE明年可能同时是CPO产业的关键节点和瓶颈，并称非技术人士常忽略CW激光等细节。

Serenity称其成为X平台订阅数第一账号

原标题: I now am the #1 most subscribed to account on the entire X platform!

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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 12:24

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): I now am the #1 most subscribed to account on the entire X platform! After overtaking Elon Musk today. Thank you everyone for helping me achieve my goal.Jbam (@Jbamn)congrats on becoming #1 most subscribed X account!— https://x.com/Jbamn/status/2062335737454907626 — Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jun 4, 2026

中文摘要 Serenity称自己已超过Elon Musk，成为整个X平台订阅数最高的账号，并感谢用户帮助其达成目标。

Serenity看多上游半导体供应链公司

原标题: Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher.

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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 11:39

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. “Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.” And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like

中文摘要 Serenity称上游半导体供应链公司仍有更大上行空间，并引用Goldman对四大超大规模云厂商2025至2030年资本开支的预期。

Serenity批评CLARITY Act影响加密创新

原标题: Well, looks like it’s that time of the year again for $COIN, $HOOD, $CRCL and co.

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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 10:00

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Well, looks like it’s that time of the year again for $COIN, $HOOD, $CRCL and co. So much for a “friendly administration” and “strategic reserve” if they’re trying to ram through Bank Lobbied Clarity Act bills… To ban any form of innovation or competition against banks, with things like yields. And nuking liquidity as they go (but strengthens the USD) Valuations do seem compell

中文摘要 Serenity谈及$COIN、$HOOD、$CRCL等公司，称在“友好政府”和“战略储备”背景下，银行游说法案仍可能限制创新。

Serenity梳理$AVGO财报电话会要点

原标题: Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that t

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Serenity 观察 · 06/04 07:56

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - “So as the TPUs continue to accelerate, there’ll be pressure overall on margins. But the connectivity sid

中文摘要 Serenity记录$AVGO业绩电话会要点，称公司重申2027年1000亿美元以上收入目标，并提到市场或期待更高指引。

欧盟CHIPS Act 2.0提案发布，光子学被纳入

原标题: EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released.

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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 22:14

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the development of photonic integrated circuits and associated technologies" - "building and strengthening advan

中文摘要 Serenity称欧盟CHIPS Act 2.0提案已发布，光子学成为新结构性政策组成部分，对欧盟光子产业构成主题利好。

Serenity比较NASDAQ与欧洲上市公司的估值差异

原标题: The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for wa

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Serenity 观察 · 06/03 19:50

Tweet from @aleabitoreddit (opinion/NFA): The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value -> $NVDA, $NOK direct eval of their pre-commercial SiPH foundry, volume ramping 2027/2028 -> $XFAB leading hig

中文摘要 Serenity以$POET和$XFAB为例，讨论NASDAQ与欧洲上市公司估值差异，涉及Sivers激光器、硅光代工和CHIPS Act支持。

本周图表：投机一代与投资行为代际变化

原标题: Chart of the Week - The Speculation Generation

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The Weekly ChartStorm · 06/03 15:04

观点/NFA: A Generational Shift in Investing has occurred...

中文摘要 The Weekly ChartStorm称投资领域已出现代际转变，并以“投机一代”为主题，用图表呈现市场参与者行为变化。

The Macro Compass：经济再次“高温运行”

原标题: Run It Hot, Yet Again

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The Macro Compass · 05/26 14:18

观点/NFA: I am back with a healthy dose of macro analysis for you

中文摘要 The Macro Compass发布宏观分析文章，称带来一份“健康剂量”的宏观解读，主题聚焦经济与政策环境继续偏热。

The Macro Compass解析Warsh与美联储主席人选

原标题: All You Need To Know About Warsh

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The Macro Compass · 02/10 18:04

观点/NFA: Let's Look Into The New Fed Chair

中文摘要 The Macro Compass发文称将全面梳理Warsh，并围绕新的美联储主席人选展开宏观与政策层面的分析。

Steno Signals #207：主要领先指标全景巡览

原标题: ABSOLUTE FINAL CALL: Steno Signals #207 – The Grand Tour of All the Leading Indicators

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Stenos Signals · 07/31 16:46

观点/NFA: Having been on vacation for a couple of weeks, I updated all of our leading indicators first thing upon returning to the office. Here’s your must-read guided tour throughour major leading indicators.

中文摘要 Stenos Signals称作者休假归来后更新了全部主要领先指标，并推出第207期，带读者系统查看这些指标。

Steno Signals #206：GENIUS Act是否真具天才之处

原标题: FINAL CALL: Steno Signals #206 – Is the GENIUS Act in fact an act of genius?

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Stenos Signals · 07/23 23:53

观点/NFA: The GENIUS Act, signed into law by Trump late last week, may have a lasting impact on everything from monetary to fiscal policy. There are signs of a tech revolution unfolding beneath the hood.

中文摘要 Stenos Signals称特朗普上周签署的GENIUS Act可能对货币和财政政策产生持久影响，并显示科技革命迹象。

El-Erian：经济与市场稳定取决于这些问题

原标题: Economic and Market Stability Hinges on These Questions

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Mohamed El-Erian · 04/12 02:29

观点/NFA: The US government needs to reassure markets.

中文摘要 Mohamed El-Erian在Bloomberg观点文章中称，美国政府需要安抚市场，经济和市场稳定取决于若干关键问题。

El-Erian：美联储必须避免重蹈降息预期错误

原标题: The Fed Must Resist Repeating Past Mistakes

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Mohamed El-Erian · 04/08 16:30

观点/NFA: Markets have been trained to expect lower rates at the first sign of volatility. Powell mustn’t give in to temptation.

中文摘要 Mohamed El-Erian称，市场已习惯在波动初现时期待降息，Powell不应屈服于这种诱惑并重复过去错误。

SEC Announces New Members of Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee

SEC Press Releases · 06/05 02:39

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced five new members of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee. The new members were appointed to four-year terms and will join the 15 current …

Agencies remove additional references to reputation risk

Federal Reserve Press Releases · 06/02 23:00

Agencies remove additional references to reputation risk

SEC Publishes Draft Strategic Plan for Public Comment

SEC Press Releases · 06/02 22:30

The Securities and Exchange Commission today published a Draft Strategic Plan that focuses on returning the agency to the core mission set by Congress more than 90 years ago: protecting investors; maintaining fair, orderly, and efficient…

SEC Announces Four New Members of Investor Advisory Committee

SEC Press Releases · 06/02 00:39

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced four new members to fill vacancies on its Investor Advisory Committee. Three of the four new members will serve four-year terms, while the fourth new member will serve as the…

SEC Proposes Rescission of Climate-Related Disclosure Rules

SEC Press Releases · 05/29 22:50

The Securities and Exchange Commission today proposed the rescission of overly burdensome and costly rules that require companies to provide certain climate-related information in their registration statements and annual reports. The Commission’s…

Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement actions with former employee of Atlantic Union Bank and former employee of Frost Bank

Federal Reserve Press Releases · 05/28 23:00

Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement actions with former employee of Atlantic Union Bank and former employee of Frost Bank

GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 1st Quarter 2026

BEA News Releases · 05/28 20:30

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. The contri

Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026

BEA News Releases · 05/28 20:30

Personal income decreased less than $0.1 billion (less than 0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)-personal income less personal current taxes-decreased $19.9 billion (0.1 percent)

SEC Investor Advisory Committee to Host June 4 Meeting

SEC Press Releases · 05/27 22:59

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s Investor Advisory Committee will hold a public meeting at the SEC Headquarters in Washington D.C. on June 4 at 10 a.m. ET to discuss private markets, passive index funds, and recommendations regarding fund…

Minutes of the Board's discount rate meeting on April 20 and 29, 2026

Federal Reserve Press Releases · 05/27 02:00

Minutes of the Board's discount rate meeting on April 20 and 29, 2026